From the NVIDIA edition of October 22, 2026
Times of Central Asia (Aug 2026, newly relevant): Ekibastuz Data Center Valley was absent from Kazakhstan's 2026 power forecast, faces a 2027 reserve-adjusted capacity deficit and depends on coal
The Times of Central Asia; subject: Kazakhstan Ministry of Energy, Kazakhtelecom, Firebird.ai · National energy planning for AI data centres · Kazakhstan (Ekibastuz, Pavlodar region)
- Publisher
- The Times of Central Asia
- Original publication
- 2026-08-25
- Source retrieved
- 2026-10-23
- Event date
- 2026-08-25
What happened
TCA reports that Data Center Valley near Ekibastuz, led by Firebird.ai and Kazakhtelecom, is planned to reach 1 GW, which could consume about 8.8 TWh a year (about 7% of current generation, per Qyzyq), with a first 50 MW facility due June 2027. Kazakhstan's 2025 generation shortfall was 1.5 TWh, met largely by Russian imports. The 2026 electricity forecast included no data-centre project; the ministry says they enter calculations from 2027. The official balance shows a 1.278 GW surplus in 2027 before reserves but a 2.366 GW deficit once required reserve is included. The key new plant, the 2.6 GW coal-fired GRES-3, is due 2029-2032 and not yet under construction. Data centres would use 2,300 m3 of water a day from the Satpayev Canal. No environmental-impact assessment is public and no major named customer contract has been announced.
Why it matters
Newly relevant because NVIDIA's Oct 22 post announces 1,000+ Vera Rubin GPUs in the Ekibastuz region next year. Transferable to U.S. states and counties weighing AI data-centre incentives: utility load forecasts, reserve margins, water sources and public environmental review are the decision points.
Evidence and measured results
Independent reporting with ministry responses, S&P Global capacity data and named experts. Not specific to NVIDIA hardware. Published Aug 25, 2026; Novastan (Oct 2) and DCD reporting on the coal-based plan were also opened and are consistent.
Limitations and uncertainty
Pre-dates NVIDIA's announcement; 1 GW consumption figure is a media estimate; Vera Rubin deployment may sit in a different phase or facility from the 50 MW first stage.
Put this evidence to work
Lighthouse Advisory interpretation, grounded in this source. Enriched 2026-10-23; this does not change the original publication date. Each role follows the same checklist so takeaways compare across sources.
Sales
Role takeaway
- Customer problem
- Governments promote AI data centres before power, water and environmental plans are public.
- Stakeholders
- Energy ministry or state utility commission
- County officials
- Residents
- Data-centre developer
- Discovery questions
- Is the load in the utility forecast and reserve plan?
- Where will cooling water come from?
- Has an environmental assessment been published?
- Value hypothesis
- Interpretation: transparent power and water planning reduces delay and opposition risk.
- Potential engagement
- Power, water and public-disclosure readiness review for a planned AI compute site.
- Unsupported claims
- That Ekibastuz power is secured
- Named customers for Data Center Valley
Pre-sales engineering
Role takeaway
- Fit
- Large GPU sites in grids with tight reserve margins.
- Architecture and integration
- Co-location with generation; dependency on new coal plant.
- Prerequisites
- Interconnection agreement
- Reserve margin
- Water rights
- Constraints
- 2.366 GW reserve-adjusted deficit in 2027
- GRES-3 not before 2029
- Plant wear
- Security
- Not addressed by the source.
- Proof of value
- Utility confirmation of firm capacity
- Water-use modelling for cooling choice
Delivery
Role takeaway
- Work
- Phase capacity with power availability; publish environmental information.
- Dependencies
- Generation build-out
- Grid upgrades
- Regulatory approvals
- Ownership
- Developer and state operator with energy ministry.
- Skills and adoption
- Not addressed.
- Governance checkpoints
- Inclusion in national energy forecast
- Environmental-impact assessment publication
- Acceptance criteria
- Proposed: firm power contract before each phase
- Proposed: published EIA before construction of later phases
- Risks
- Delay from generation shortfall
- Public opposition from lack of transparency
- Emissions lock-in
Implementation considerations
Lighthouse Advisory interpretation across the operating dimensions a public-sector buyer must settle before this evidence becomes a design. Each note answers the question under its heading for this specific source.
Architecture and integration
What must connect, and where does the AI sit in the workflow?
Siting next to coal generation reduces transmission losses but ties capacity to ageing plants with high wear rates.
Governance
Who approves, reviews and stays accountable for outcomes?
Data-centre demand entering national planning only in the year the first facility opens shows a planning gap; public transparency on water and emissions is lacking.
Security and privacy
What data, permissions and controls need testing?
Not addressed.
Accessibility and workforce
Who is affected, and what skills or accommodations follow?
Local residents report lack of information on water, power and environmental impact.
Procurement
What should contracts, pricing and exit terms secure?
Not addressed.
Operating model
Which teams own the service once it runs?
Capacity delivery depends on new generation that is years away; reliability risk during winter peaks.
Publication history
- 2026-10-22NVIDIA · Issue 479 resources
Stable resource ID: timesca-kazakhstan-data-center-valley-power-deficit-coal-20260825